基于心血管代谢指数与早期膀胱颈移动度的产后盆底功能障碍诊断模型研究
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1芜湖市第一人民医院,超声医学科,安徽 芜湖 241000;2芜湖市第一人民医院,妇产科,安徽 芜湖 241000

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丁华,E-mail:klyyynwtz@163.com

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R714.6

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安徽省卫生健康科研项目(AHWJ2023A30239)


Diagnostic model for postpartum pelvic floor dysfunction based on the cardiometabolic index and early bladder neck mobility
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1Department of Ultrasound Medicine, Wuhu First People's Hospital, Wuhu, Anhui 241000, China; 2. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wuhu First People's Hospital, Wuhu, Anhui 241000, China;1Department of Ultrasound Medicine, Wuhu First People's Hospital, Wuhu, Anhui 241000, China; 2. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wuhu First People's Hospital, Wuhu, Anhui 241000, China

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨心血管代谢指数与早期膀胱颈移动度对产后盆底功能障碍(PFD)的诊断价值。方法 选取2022年1月—2024年12月芜湖市第一人民医院收治的产后6~8周就诊的317例产妇作为研究对象。根据产妇是否发生PFD分为PFD组和无PFD组,分别有170、147例。所有产妇进行经会阴盆底超声检测,并收集产妇临床资料。采用Logistic回归模型分析PFD的影响因素,并采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析心血管代谢指数与早期膀胱颈移动度对产妇PFD的诊断价值。构建风险评估列线图模型,并运用H-L拟合优度、校准曲线、ROC曲线、决策曲线分析(DCA)曲线对建立的模型进行内部验证和外部验证。采用沙普利加法解释(SHAP)行可解释性分析。结果 两组身高、收缩压、舒张压、分娩孕周、新生儿体重、机械助产、总胆固醇、甘油三酯、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇比较,差异均无统计学意义(P >0.05)。PFD组年龄、体质量指数(BMI)、腰高比、心血管代谢指数、膀胱颈活动度均高于无PFD组(P <0.05),第二产程时间长于无PFD组(P <0.05)。多因素一般Logistic回归分析结果显示:年龄大[O^R=1.873(95% CI:1.531,2.291)]、BMI大[O^R=1.530(95% CI:1.291,1.814)]、第二产程时间长[O^R=1.022(95% CI:1.010,1.034)]、心血管代谢指数高[O^R=2.355(95% CI:1.710,3.242)]、膀胱颈活动度大[O^R=1.547(95% CI:1.340,1.785)]均为产妇发生PFD的危险因素(P <0.05)。ROC曲线分析结果显示,心血管代谢指数诊断PFD的特异性最高,为82.3%(95% CI:0.752,0.881),膀胱颈活动度预测PFD的敏感性最高,为88.2%(95% CI:0.824,0.927),心血管代谢指数、膀胱颈活动度联合检测预测PFD的曲线下面积(AUC)最高,为0.899,且敏感性和特异性均较高。风险评估列线图模型在建模数据集上展现出良好的区分度,一致性指数为0.837(95% CI:0.795,0.879)。内部验证结果显示,模型校准效果较理想(P >0.10)。Bootstrap自抽样法绘制模型校准曲线,结果显示,校准曲线与理想曲线贴合(P >0.10)。ROC曲线的AUC为0.76(95% CI:0.67,0.86),表明其具有中等偏上的判别能力。DCA曲线显示,各阈值概率下模型均具有正向净获益,表明在训练集中使用模型评估产妇产后PFD事件临床净收益率大于“全干预”“不干预”方案。外部验证结果显示,模型校准效果比较理想(P >0.10)。Bootstrap自抽样法绘制模型校准曲线,结果显示,校准曲线与理想曲线贴合(P>0.10)。ROC曲线的AUC为0.78(95% CI:0.65,0.91),表明其具有中等偏上的判别能力区分度良好。DCA曲线显示,各阈值概率下模型均具有正向净获益,表明在建模集中使用模型评估产妇产后PFD事件临床净收益率大于“全干预”“不干预”方案。沙普利加法解释(SHAP)重要性条形图显示,对产妇产后PFD评估价值重要性由高到低分别为膀胱颈活动度、年龄、心血管代谢指数、第二产程时间、BMI。根据模型,该特征的SHAP值越高,产妇越容易发生PFD。结论 年龄、BMI、第二产程时间、心血管代谢指数、膀胱颈移动度是产妇产后PFD的影响因素,其中心血管代谢指数、膀胱颈移动度联合检测对PFD的预测价值较高。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the diagnostic value of cardiometabolic index and early bladder neck mobility for postpartum pelvic floor dysfunction (PFD).Methods A total of 317 parturients who visited our hospital within 6~8 weeks after delivery from January 2022 to December 2024 were selected as the research subjects. These parturients were divided into the PFD group (n = 170) and the non-PFD group (n = 147) based on the occurrence of PFD. All parturients underwent transperineal pelvic floor ultrasound scan and their clinical data were collected. The logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of PFD, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the diagnostic efficacy of cardiometabolic index and early bladder neck mobility for PFD in parturients. A risk assessment nomogram model was established, and its performance was internally and externally validated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, calibration curves, ROC curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Explainability analysis was performed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).Results Comparisons of height, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, gestational age at delivery, neonatal birth weight, instrumental vaginal delivery, and levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) between the two groups revealed no statistically significant differences (all P > 0.05). The PFD group had significantly older age, higher body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio, and cardiometabolic index, greater bladder neck mobility, and longer duration of the second stage of labor than the non-PFD group (P < 0.05). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that older age [O^R = 1.873 (95% CI: 1.531, 2.291) ], higher BMI [O^R = 1.530 (95% CI: 1.291, 1.814)], longer duration of the second stage of labor [O^R = 1.022 (95% CI: 1.010, 1.034) ], higher cardiometabolic index [O^R = 2.355 (95% CI: 1.710, 3.242) ], and greater bladder neck mobility [O^R = 1.547 (95% CI: 1.340, 1.785) ] were risk factors for PFD (all P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the cardiometabolic index had the highest specificity for diagnosing PFD, with a specificity of 82.3% (95% CI: 0.752, 0.881), whereas bladder neck mobility showed the highest sensitivity for predicting PFD, with a sensitivity of 88.2% (95% CI: 0.824, 0.927). The combined assessment of cardiometabolic index and bladder neck mobility achieved the highest predictive performance for PFD, with an AUC of 0.899 and relatively high sensitivity and specificity. The risk assessment nomogram demonstrated good discrimination in the training dataset, with a concordance index of 0.837 (95% CI: 0.795, 0.879). Internal validation indicated satisfactory model calibration (P > 0.10). Calibration curves generated using bootstrap resampling showed good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities (P > 0.10). The ROC curve yielded an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.86), indicating moderate-to-good discriminative ability. DCA demonstrated a positive net benefit across all threshold probabilities, suggesting that the use of the model to evaluate the risk of PFD provided greater clinical net benefit than the "treat-all" and "treat-none" strategies in the training dataset. External validation showed satisfactory model calibration (P > 0.10). Bootstrap-derived calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed probabilities (P > 0.10). The ROC curve yielded an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.65, 0.91), indicating moderate-to-good discriminative ability. DCA demonstrated positive net benefit across all threshold probabilities, suggesting that the model provided greater clinical net benefit than the “treat-all” and “treat-none” strategies in the validation dataset. The SHAP importance plot showed that the variables ranked by their contribution to PFD prediction were bladder neck mobility, age, cardiometabolic index, duration of the second stage of labor, and BMI. According to the model, higher SHAP values for these features were associated with a higher likelihood of developing PFD.Conclusion Age, BMI, duration of the second stage of labor, cardiometabolic index, and bladder neck mobility are identified as influencing factors for postpartum PFD. The combined assessment of cardiometabolic index and bladder neck mobility demonstrates high predictive value for postpartum PFD.

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王磊,李洪梅,许小冬,曹敏,余益香,丁华.基于心血管代谢指数与早期膀胱颈移动度的产后盆底功能障碍诊断模型研究[J].中国现代医学杂志,2026,36(16):105-112

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-01
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