老年肝癌患者介入治疗后衰弱现状及风险评估模型的建立与验证
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作者单位:

成都市公共卫生临床医疗中心 肝病一科,四川 成都 610066

作者简介:

通讯作者:

金燕,E-mail:982275953@qq.com

中图分类号:

R735.7

基金项目:

四川省科技计划项目(2024JDKP0161)


Frailty status and the development and validation of a risk assessment model in elderly patients with liver cancer after interventional therapy
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Department of Hepatology, Chengdu Public Health Clinical Medical Center, Chengdu, Sichuan 610066, China

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨老年肝癌患者介入治疗后衰弱现状,建立风险评估模型并进行验证。方法 选取2023年1月—2025年6月成都市公共卫生临床医疗中心200例老年肝癌患者进行回顾性队列研究,以7∶3的比例随机分为训练集(140例)与验证集(60例)。所有患者行介入治疗,治疗后1个月根据Tilburg衰弱量表(TFI)评估衰弱发生情况。采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归筛选老年肝癌患者介入治疗后衰弱相关特征变量,采用随机森林(RF)算法建立风险评估模型。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线的曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线及临床决策曲线评估模型性能。采用验证集数据验证模型效能。结果 200例患者TFI评分为5(4,6)分,衰弱发生率为47.00%。衰弱组年龄、并发症发生率、年龄调整查尔森指数(aCCI)评分、营养风险筛查量表(NRS-2002)评分、癌症疲乏量表(CFS)评分、匹兹堡睡眠质量指数量表(PSQI)评分均高于无衰弱组(P <0.05),巴塞罗那临床肝癌(BCLC)分期C期占比高于无衰弱组(P <0.05),文化程度、已婚率低于无衰弱组(P <0.05)。经LASSO回归筛选出老年肝癌患者介入治疗后衰弱的变量包括BCLC分期、并发症、aCCI评分、NRS-2002评分、CFS评分、PSQI评分。基于上述变量构建的RF模型在训练集、验证集中的AUC分别为0.809(95% CI:0.687,0.899),0.791(95% CI:0.714,0.855)。校准曲线斜率结果显示,训练集、验证集RF模型中Brier得分分别为0.187、0.176,校准曲线整体接近理想对角线,斜率接近1,截距接近0。训练集在0.13~0.86内高于None线和All线,验证集在0.10~0.90内高于None线和All线。结论 BCLC分期、并发症、aCCI评分、NRS-2002评分、CFS评分、PSQI评分是筛选出的老年肝癌患者介入治疗后衰弱的关键风险变量。该研究据此采用RF算法成功构建了一个可靠的风险评估模型,有利于及早识别高风险患者,为临床优化防治方案提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the frailty status of elderly patients with liver cancer after interventional therapy, and to establish and validate a risk assessment model.Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted, enrolling 200 elderly liver cancer patients from our hospital between January 2023 and June 2025. They were randomly divided into a training set (n = 140) and a validation set (n = 60) at a 7:3 ratio. All patients underwent interventional therapy, and frailty was assessed one month post-treatment using the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen the characteristic variables related to frailty in elderly patients with liver cancer after interventional therapy, and the random forest (RF) algorithm was used to establish the risk assessment model. The model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curve and clinical decision curve, and was verified using the validation set data.Results Among the 200 patients, the TFI score was 5 (4, 6), and the incidence of frailty was 47.00%. Compared with the non-frailty group, patients in the frailty group were older and had higher rates of complications, as well as higher scores on the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (aCCI), Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), Cancer Fatigue Scale (CFS), and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) (all P < 0.05). The frailty group had more advanced Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages, lower educational attainment, and a lower proportion of married patients than the non-frailty group (all P < 0.05). LASSO regression identified BCLC stage, complications, aCCI score, NRS-2002 score, CFS score, and PSQI score as variables associated with frailty after interventional therapy in elderly patients with liver cancer. Based on these variables, an RF model was developed. The AUC of the RF model were 0.809 (95% CI: 0.687, 0.899) and 0.791 (95% CI: 0.714, 0.855) in the training and validation sets, respectively. Calibration analysis showed Brier scores of 0.187 and 0.176 for the RF model in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves were generally close to the ideal diagonal line, with slopes approaching 1 and intercepts approaching 0. Decision curve analysis showed that the net benefit of the model was higher than that of the "treat-none" and "treat-all" strategies over threshold probability ranges of 0.13-0.86 in the training set and 0.10-0.90 in the validation set.Conclusion BCLC stage, complications, aCCI score, NRS-2002 score, CFS score, and PSQI score are identified as key risk variables for frailty after interventional therapy in elderly patients with liver cancer. Based on these variables, a reliable risk assessment model was successfully developed using the RF algorithm, which may facilitate the early identification of high-risk patients and provide a reference for optimizing clinical prevention and management strategies.

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魏丹,曹文娟,吕春容,牟一鑫,金燕.老年肝癌患者介入治疗后衰弱现状及风险评估模型的建立与验证[J].中国现代医学杂志,2026,36(16):96-104

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  • 收稿日期:2026-02-04
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